Research published today by Ulster University examining public attitudes towards Northern Ireland’s constitutional future reveals a debate shaped as much by emotion, identity and lived experience as by politics.
Funded through the DFA Reconciliation Fund, the report titled More Light, Less Heat - Navigating Debate on a Constitutional Referendum in Northern Ireland was informed by face-to-face surveys with 800 people across Northern Ireland in autumn 2025 and further detailed interviews with key stakeholders.
It found broad interest and a positive appetite for the referendum debate, but an outcome that remains unclear and unpredictable with calls for practical, detailed information on Northern Ireland’s constitutional options.
Crucially, the research reveals that while debate on Irish unity is often positioned in the binary context of two opposing sides with a wavering middle ground, the issue is in fact much more complex and nuanced for individual voters, with the question of identity and sovereignty heavily intertwined with the question “What would life actually look like after constitutional change – or after staying the same?”
The memory of Brexit continues to cast a shadow over constitutional referendum
Across both the survey and interview data there was a strong indication that mistakes from previous referenda, particularly Brexit, continue to influence public attitudes. For some, it made constitutional change feel more realistic, while for others it created feelings of uncertainty or abandonment.
Critically, the 2016 Brexit Referendum reinforced concerns about unclear outcomes and lack of preparedness. Participants emphasised the risks of entering a major constitutional vote without clear planning, agreed facts, or detailed information about consequences. This includes uncertainty around key everyday issues such as healthcare, pensions, taxation, business impact, public services and economic stability.
Private openness but public caution surrounds debate
While hotly contested in the media, the research project sought to cast a light on how this debate is perceived and engaged with outside of the political bubble, aiding decision-makers to make more informed choices about how, when and where it can be conducted alongside other priorities. Findings suggest that public conversation is currently marked for many by uncertainty, caution, emotional sensitivity and a growing demand for practical, evidence-led answers rather than ideological arguments.
The study also uncovered a clear distinction between comfort in private conversations and unease in public settings, underlining the sensitivity of the topic and how questions around the border continue to resonate deeply across communities, combining hope, anxiety and uncertainty in equal measure.
Conclusions
Suggesting that the outcome of any future referendum remains unclear and unpredictable, the research indicates that those campaigning for their preferred constitutional arrangement have much work to do to persuade people both of the value of a referendum and of the outcome.
Participants demonstrated a preference for more inclusive, evidence-led discussion that encompasses a broader range of voices – with a greater role for academics, business leaders, civic society groups and Citizens’ Assemblies. While a significant proportion of voters see the conversation as broadly positive, they have low levels of trust in political actors to lead the debate.
The mistakes of previous referenda, in which outcomes were not anticipated and details were scarce, should not be repeated. There is a greater deal of flux within this debate than might be represented publicly or engaged with politically – creating both a challenge and opportunity to conduct the debate differently and engage with it on a more nuanced level.
Dr Jonny Byrne, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Ulster University said:
“We are pleased to present this research with the support of the DFA Reconciliation Fund, which reveals the many complex layers to the debate around Northern Ireland’s constitutional future. This conversation is far more nuanced than often portrayed, with people weighing up challenging emotional and practical considerations rather than simply aligning themselves along traditional positions. Our participants sent a clear message that any future debate about Irish unity must be grounded in credible evidence, detailed planning and an honest assessment of the consequences. The experience of Brexit has heightened expectations that this cannot be another vote defined by uncertainty or lack of clarity.”
