Ulster’s Economic Policy Centre continues to advise the government and industry about the economic consequences of Covid-19 on the Northern Ireland economy.
Economic consequences in Northern
In a recent report Ulster's Economic Policy Centre predicts economic output could fall by as much as 9.6% in 2020 and estimates that approximately 235k workers are either temporarily laid-off or have their salaries funded through the Government’s Job Retention Scheme (i.e. furloughed).
The report explores an array of forces on the NI economy including; long term effects of increased borrowing, changing patterns of public expenditure, the challenging decisions ahead, balancing public health vs the economy and maps out what a lockdown exit strategy might look like.
Labour market implications
As the UK and NI Governments take action to constrain the number of COVID-19 transmissions, social distancing measures are the first line of defence.
This has involved the majority of non-essential businesses closing.
The impact of closures will be far from uniform, as some sectors will be hit much harder than others, and given the worker characteristics differ significantly between sectors, certain groups of people will bear a disproportionate impact of the crisis.