Causal Evaluation of Innovation Policy Interventions

Summary

This PhD project will estimate whether Invest NI’s business-support interventions cause additional economic activity, for which firms, and under what conditions, and what that implies for the allocation of public support.

The project has three empirical studies. The first estimates impacts from how awards were made. Where a score threshold operated, that is the comparison; where it did not, applicants over time. Survival and employment come first. Rarer innovation outcomes are secondary. The second asks how those effects vary by firm size, sector, and context, and turns that evidence into targeting rules under the agency’s budget, distinguishing firms for whom support changes the outcome from firms that would have succeeded anyway. The third maps how firms combine and sequence programmes. Causal claims about sequencing will be made only for contrasts the files can support. The map itself is the guaranteed deliverable.

The research draws on Invest NI’s administrative data on applications, awards, and firm characteristics, linked where appropriate to external data on economic outcomes, with external microdata accessed through the accredited-researcher route. All work operates within the governance arrangements agreed with Invest NI.

The student will be trained in programme evaluation and the practical use of administrative data, and will work directly with policy teams. Outputs include peer-reviewed papers, policy briefings, and code that Invest NI can maintain.

The project is delivered through a partnership between Ulster University, Queen’s University Belfast, Invest NI, and the AICC. It will give Invest NI evidence for innovation-policy decisions and contribute to academic debate on additionality and the allocation of public support.

Applicants must apply by submitting both:

1. a CV
2. a 1000-word cover letter, outlining their motivation for a PhD on the evaluation of innovation policy; relevant quantitative, econometric, or research experience; interest in applied, policy-focused research; and how they meet the following criteria:

ESSENTIAL CRITERIA

1. A UK 2.1 Honours degree (or equivalent qualification acceptable to the University)
2. Strong quantitative skills, including econometrics and statistical programming (Python, R, or Stata), and experience analysing firm, survey, or administrative microdata;
3. Understanding of causal inference, including how programme rules or other comparisons can be used to estimate effects;
4. Strong organisational and time-management skills, with the ability to manage an independent research project;
5. Ability to communicate complex statistical and econometric findings to non-technical policy stakeholders;
6. Recruitment is restricted to locally based, home-fee eligible students to support secure data access arrangements.

DESIRABLE CRITERIA

1. a UK Master’s degree in Economics, Statistics, Econometrics, Data Science, Computer Science, or a closely related quantitative discipline with a final result of at least 70% (or equivalent qualification acceptable to the University);
2. Understanding of Northern Ireland’s economy and of innovation policy in the region;
3. Experience with policy evaluation, programme assessment, or applied microeconometrics;
4. Experience estimating how programme effects vary across firms or groups;
5. Evidence of potential to engage effectively with non-academic stakeholders and policymakers;
6. Experience working with administrative or firm-level microdata.

Essential criteria

Applicants should hold, or expect to obtain, a First or Upper Second Class Honours Degree in a subject relevant to the proposed area of study.

We may also consider applications from those who hold equivalent qualifications, for example, a Lower Second Class Honours Degree plus a Master’s Degree with Distinction.

In exceptional circumstances, the University may consider a portfolio of evidence from applicants who have appropriate professional experience which is equivalent to the learning outcomes of an Honours degree in lieu of academic qualifications.

• A comprehensive and articulate personal statement demonstrating interest in the subject area
• Research proposal of no more than 2000 words detailing aims, objectives, milestones and methodology of the project

Equal Opportunities

The University is an equal opportunities employer and welcomes applicants from all sections of the community, particularly from those with disabilities.

Appointment will be made on merit.

Funding and eligibility

This project is funded by:

• Invest NI

This is a fully funded PhD studentship supported through a partnership between Invest NI and the Artificial Intelligence Collaboration Centre (AICC). The project requires access to secure data environments and is delivered through a collaboration between Ulster University, Queen’s University Belfast, Invest NI, and AICC.

The three-year scholarship will cover home tuition fees and provide a tax-free maintenance allowance of £23,511 (fEC) per annum for three years, subject to satisfactory academic progress. Additional support for research expenses, training, and conference attendance will be available, subject to supervisory approval and relevant institutional policies.

Due to the project’s data-access requirements and funding arrangements, recruitment is restricted to UK and Republic of Ireland (ROI) candidates.

To be eligible for this scholarship, applicants must meet the following criteria:

• Be a UK National, or

• Have settled status, or

• Have pre-settled status, or

• Have indefinite leave to remain or enter, or

• be an Irish National

Applicants should also meet the residency criteria which requires that they have lived in the EEA, Switzerland, the UK or Gibraltar for at least the three years preceding the start date of the research degree programme.

Applicants who already hold a doctoral degree or who have been registered on a programme of research leading to the award of a doctoral degree on a full-time basis for more than one year (or part-time equivalent) are NOT eligible to apply for an award.

Due consideration should be given to financing your studies.