COVID-19 Recovery: Modelling Transmission

Ulster University are collaborating on a project to develop mathematical models that better understand the transmission dynamics of Covid-19.

The School of Engineering, Computing and a range of other research groups from across the University are collaborating on a project to develop mathematical models that better understand the transmission dynamics of Covid-19.

The team are working closely with Dr Rob Brisk, ECME-Ulster based researcher and cardiologist at the Southern Health and Social Care Trust. Dr Brisk is also part of the Governments Specialist Modelling Response Expert Group in Northern Ireland.

The main purpose of the project is to validate and inform the Modelling Response Team’s work as well as help governing bodies in Northern Ireland to better plan for intervention measures and ultimately flatten the curve.

Our modelling activities can be broken into three key areas

  1. Model the initial trajectories of COVID-19 in Northern Ireland and establish the initial basic reproduction number of COVID-19 (the R number). By establishing this number, we can indicate how rapidly the virus is spreading within our society.
  2. Integrate the various intervention measures into our models and understand the effect of such control action on the ‘R number’ with a goal of reducing this and bringing the virus under better control.
  3. Model the various options for exit and recovery strategies, to help the relevant governing bodies in planning when to initiate or lift control interventions.

This work will help in fighting the virus here in Northern Ireland and protect our vital health services.

Dr Mark Ng takes a closer look at modelling activities Dr Mark Ng takes a closer look at modelling activities

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Dr Mark Ng takes a closer look at modelling activities


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